Emerging risks in finance: “Tilted to the downside”? As the year-end approaches, the focus of market strategists and economists is on the risks to the global economy and markets in 2024. Key potential sources of risk for the global economy include fallout from China’s real estate crisis, commodity price volatility, persistent inflation, and ballooning
Private funds feeling the pressure For at least a decade, private assets – equities, credit, real estate, and other alternative assets that are not publicly traded – had been experiencing a boom, driven by the growing popularity of alternative assets after the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and a broad bull market in asset
Specter of stagflation haunts markets The response of central authorities to the pandemic was decisive – reflationary policies that injected massive amounts of money into both the financial system and the real economy, turbocharging credit growth and asset valuations. However, the unintended consequence of all this stimulus was an unwelcome surge in inflation, exacerbated
Fossil fuels and net zero – can they ever be compatible? The road to net zero is a complicated journey with multiple diversions, forks, and confusing terrain, not least exemplified by the contention that it can be achieved while actually increasing fossil fuel production. Climate change objectives are typically articulated
Basel III Endgame: US banks to be brought into line with Basel III The announcement of new proposals – referred to as the “Basel III Endgame” – to bring the regulatory capital framework in the United States into line with the final provisions of Basel III is well timed following well-publicized instances of the
ESG backlash gathers pace The recent statement by the CEO of one of the world’s largest asset managers that henceforth he would stop using the ‘weaponized’ term ‘ESG’ is clearly a consequence of a backlash against ESG investing that has been building for years. The issue of environmental, social, and
Credit cycle on the turn “Higher for longer” is a mantra with which observers of the global interest rate regime have been familiar with for some time. As central banks worldwide remain resolved to stay the course of rate rises to counter obstinate inflation, so the effects of ‘normalized’ rates are beginning to bite
Open banking – A global perspective It is more than a decade since open banking arrived on the scene to a reluctant banking sector. That is just one reason why it has yet to reach its potential but it is in less developed markets where its impact promises to be revolutionary. Open banking
CBDCs – Moving forward (slowly)Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have been characterized as a solution in search of a problem, but central banks seem resolute in their ultimate adoption, in spite of implied threats to commercial banks and financial stability. According to the Atlantic Council there are now 105 countries whose central banks’ are actively
Rates turmoil strikes financial system The spike in interest rates over the past couple of years has transformed the banking landscape and placed immense pressure on individual institutions, leading to dramatic rescues in the US and Switzerland, and raising the dual spectres of systemic failure and a credit crunch. Since late 2021, the
